Minnesota is threatened by drastic disparities between
white residents and Minnesotans of color. (See The “Coloring” of Minnesota).
Interestingly this is usually presented as a problem for the state’s
communities of color but it’s far more than that. Case in point: The lagging
rates of high school completion.
Among Minnesotans ages 25 and older, 92.6% have at least
a high school degree (or equivalent), according to the Census Bureau’s latest
American Community Survey (ACS) data for 2008. This is about 6 percentage
points higher than the national average of 86.2%. Good news.
But in estimating the outlook, G&J finds that the
share of Minnesotans with a high school degree (or equivalent) or higher will
likely drop from 92.6% in 2008 to 88.5% in 2020, barring changes in the current
trends. Bad news.
In other words, at the current graduation rates and at
the projected level of population growth, in ten years, Minnesota’s 25- to
34-year-olds, as a group, will be relatively less educated than today.
Why is this decline expected? The statistical explanation
for this is quite simple. As communities of color become a larger proportion of
the total Minnesota population, they will also represent a larger proportion of
our students. More important, since the graduation rates for Minnesotans of
color – particularly African Americans and Latinos – are much lower than those
for whites, the overall share of students graduating from high school will
decline over time.
Although minorities will likely account for about 20% of
the total Minnesota population in 2020, they will likely account for only 16%
of the total share of Minnesotans 25-34 with a high school degree, meaning
disproportionately fewer Minnesotans of color will earn the degree.
It’s All Connected.
The expected drop in the share of younger Minnesotans
with high school degrees will continue to ripple through the state – in the
form of lower college and trade school attainment, a less competitive work
force, wage earners less able to support a family, and increased reliance on
public programs for support.
High school graduates earn about $8,000 more annually
than working adults without a high school degree. Specifically, the median
earnings in the past 12 months for Minnesotans with less than a high school
degree was $19,989 (as reported in the ACS, using 2008 inflation-adjusted
dollars), while high school graduates (or equivalent) earned $27,448. Though
the median earnings for those with a BA degree are significantly higher
($48,260), we must remember that most Minnesotans do not yet earn BA degrees –
only 35.1% percent of Minnesotans ages 25-34 had bachelor’s degrees in 2008.
The ACS also reports that the poverty rate for those with
less than a high school degree is 22.2%, while those with just a high school
degree (or equivalent) have a poverty rate of about 9.3%.
What can we do about it?
Racial disparities in educational attainment will affect
Minnesota as a whole, and they will not be reversed by simplistic but
politically popular measures aimed at testing, reducing overall spending or
changing certification requirements for teachers.
Based on research and insights from educators, Growth
& Justice has formulated four principles for guiding Minnesota toward
better outcomes from its education dollars. Of particular interest here is our
finding that the greatest returns on education investment come from addressing
the greatest disparities in opportunity and achievement. Effective investments
address the whole student’s needs — social support, academic preparation, and
improved access to early childhood and post-secondary learning opportunity. And
there is no question that, overall, students of color may face different
challenges and have different needs.
Perhaps by discussing Minnesota’s changing demographics,
we can begin to get past the taboos of discussing these disparities and have a
frank conversation about race in Minnesota. We can no longer afford to view
issues at “their problem.” It’s our problem, today and tomorrow. As Minnesota’s
demographics change, our policies must change course, too, for the good of us
all.
- José Pacas
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